000
AXNT20 KNHC 202336
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE TROPICAL 
ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 4N17W TO 0N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1S46W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 
20W-30W...AND FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 37W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA 
AT 26N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N87W. A WARM FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM 26N87W TO HOUSTON TEXAS AT 25N97W MOVING N. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WARM FRONT. 10-15 KT 
NE WINDS ARE N OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE 10-20 KT SE 
TO S WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONTS. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 
24N-26N E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. A 
90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND A WARM 
FRONT  TO BE WELL N OF THE N GULF. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL TO BE IN THE WARM AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN NAMELY OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...BELIZE 
...AND GUATEMALA. MORE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF 
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER 
THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N68W 
TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N70W 
TO 23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 
1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. THE TAIL 
END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N25W TO 
26N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 
20N BETWEEN 35W-50W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 
14N-27N BETWEEN WEST AFRICA AND 50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA