000 AXNT20 KNHC 191126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1125 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH LIBERIA AND EXTENDING TO 04N11W 2N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N19W TO EQ24W 1S33W TO 2S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 7W AND 21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 190 NM N OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED IN THE WEST ATLC NEAR 32N71W. RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE 10-15 KT SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF THAT HAS WIND SPEED UP TO 25 KT. ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR WHICH IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR N OF 27N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE N OF 27N WEST OF 84W AND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA BY SOUTHERN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE COLD FR0NT EXTENDS FROM 29N91W AND THEN SW TO 27N95W 27N97W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE LOUISIANA...S MISSISSIPPI AND SW ALABAMA. RAINSHOWERS EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 90 NM OFF THE COASTLINES BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE GULF WATERS AND WILL EXIT THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AND NE REGIONS OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT DOMINATE THE WEST...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. IN THE SOUTHERN REGION AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH NEAR GALE FORCE DOMINATE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY KEEP SHOWING VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DOTS THE REGION INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE ACTUAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N50W AND EXTENDS SW TO 26N55W AND 24N61W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY DYING FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO 22N75W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FOUND BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC AND A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG IT. E OF THE FRONT...A 1027 MB DISSIPATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N38W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL STALL WHILE WEAKENS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR