000 AXNT20 KNHC 181739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 11N15W THEN ALONG 7N17W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE SW COAST OF AFRICA TO THE EQUATOR E OF 5W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-43W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO TEXAS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CONUS FROM THE N GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF WATERS NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SE GEORGIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE NW GULF AND COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 90W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM JUST S OF TUXPAN TO JUST N OF TAMPICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. REMNANT COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 84W AND S OF 25N OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH SE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE THEN BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 26N BY WED NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD BEHIND FRONT ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVER HAITI NEAR 20N71W EXTENDING ALONG 16N78W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 70W. THESE TRADE WINDS MAY USHER IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N E OF 73W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU AND FRI AS W ATLC HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W EXTENDING ALONG 25N63W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 20N71W AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SE GEORGIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SE TO 25N68W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC BETWEEN 25W-60W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 20N. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF THE W ATLC FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 27N40W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH TUE THEN DIFFUSE WED AND THU. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ALONG 32N THROUGH WED NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC EARLY WED THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA WED NIGHT BEFORE WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 32N58W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU AND DISSIPATE FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW