000 AXNT20 KNHC 171743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 12N16W THEN ALONG 7N18W TO 3N22W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE SW COAST OF AFRICA TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN ...FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-18W...AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E CONUS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CARIBBEAN E OF 92W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE GULF S OF 27N E OF 94W TO OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT INCLUDING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW GULF WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 25N W OF 93W TO THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER ALABAMA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF E AND S GULF WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E LATER TODAY. FRESH S BREEZE WILL SET UP OVER W GULF TODAY AND SPREAD E INCREASING TO A STRONG BREEZE MON. WEAK COLD FRONT REACH NW GULF TUE THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER N GULF WATERS WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION ACROSS CUBA AT 17/1500 UTC BETWEEN HOLGUIN AND CAMAGUEY CONTINUING NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 19N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM W OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OFF THE COAST OF HAITI JUST E OF JAMAICA TO 12N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF TROUGH TO THE COLD FRONT. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF 75 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THESE TRADE WINDS MAY USHER IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA EARLY TONIGHT THEN STALL AND TRANSITION TO SHEAR LINE OVER THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF AREA THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 17/1500 UTC NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDING ALONG 26N70W THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN HOLGUIN AND CAMAGUEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM W OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 32N61W ALONG 25N67W INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OFF THE COAST OF HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF TROUGH TO THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-65W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N17W TO 27N26W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF THE W ATLC COLD FRONT/TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 28N40W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N69W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY TONIGHT THEN SLOW REACHING FROM 32N55W TO HISPANIOLA EARLY MON BEFORE STALLING AND TRANSITION TO SHEAR LINE THROUGH MON NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 29N W OF FRONT TO 77W. WEAK COLD FRONT REACH NW PORTION WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW