000 AXNT20 KNHC 170554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 06N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 04W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 10W-14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W THEN TO 19N92W IN THE SW GULF. WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS PRECIPITATION FREE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W AND LOW-LEVEL OVERCAST SKIES S OF A LINE FROM 23N98W TO 21N91W IN THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N96W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N-NE TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS E OF 90W AND WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AS WELL. BY LATE SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONT THAT EXTEND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE EASTERNMOST COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 16N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. THE SECOND AND MORE DYNAMIC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS BY EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS E OF 80W PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER ADVECTING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE EASTERNMOST COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA VIA CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 240 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT...A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N75W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N81W. THIS COLD FRONT REMAINS PRECIPITATION- FREE...HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY USHERING IN STRONG NW WINDS TO GALE FORCE N OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N43W. THE ONLY WEAKNESS LOCATED WITHIN THE RIDGING IS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N21W SW TO 26N38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN