000 AXNT20 KNHC 152357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER GUINEA NEAR 10N15W THEN ALONG 5N15W TO 1N28W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND 21W. ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS WERE NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 5W AND 10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CONTINUING ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY SE AND OVERTAKE THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND USHER IN STRONG NLY WINDS IN THE GULF...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SW GULF. CURRENTLY...REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGERY IS DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SE OF A VERO BEACH TO NAPLES LINE WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM. N TO NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED RAIN SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS S OF 26N. FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS INDICATED OVER THE GULF WITH REINFORCEMENT FROM A STRONGER 1032 MB HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS IN STREETS WERE INDICATED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ALTHOUGH A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A 1716 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 KT WERE CONFINED TO THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N EXTENDING INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BETWEEN 68W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE AREA. THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE. A STRONG FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD N OF THE AREA MON AND TUE GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS AND THE FAR NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW WAS ALONG THE BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N74W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR PALM BEACH. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 240 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS DENSE CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N52W AND DOMINATES THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 50W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N14W ALONG 22N30W TO A BASE NEAR 12N55W. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF THE W ATLC FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N51W. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT AND WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING THEN FROM 32N52W TO HAITI MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA MON AND TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB