000 AXNT20 KNHC 151756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER GUINEA NEAR 11N15W THEN ALONG 8N19W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 3N17W TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA IN SW AFRICA NEAR 5N9W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT AT 15/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE S GULF S OF 26N. NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75/90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS S OF 24N W OF 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING SE ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH OVER ALABAMA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. STATIONARY FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES WHICH WILL RAPIDLY ENTER THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT MORNING MOVING SE OF THE GULF BY SAT EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE MON EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TUE AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ALTHOUGH A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BETWEEN 67W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE WHILE THE REMAINDER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD N OF THE AREA MON AND TUE GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS AND THE FAR NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 15/1500 UTC NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING TO 28N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CROSSING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N80W. A WEAK 1016 MB LOW DEVELOPED AT 15/1200 UTC AND IS LOCATED AT 15/1500 UTC NEAR 30N75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH AND THE S TIP OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 225/250 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS DENSE CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N55W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N14W ALONG 21N36W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 12N51W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF THE W ATLC FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N49W. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT SAT AND WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING THEN FROM 32N52W TO HAITI MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA MON AND TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW