000
AXNT20 KNHC 151127
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W 
TO 2N15W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO ITCZ AND CONTINUES ALONG 
1S30W 2S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-6N BETWEEN 10W-20W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 20W-23W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-3N BETWEEN 26W-32W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO PROGRESO MEXICO NEAR 21N90W TO 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
210 NM N OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE S FLORIDA. A 1020 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 32N86W. 10-20 KT N WINDS ARE OVER 
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS S OF 25N. THE NW 
GULF AND S TEXAS HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER HOWEVER TEMPERATURES 
ARE IN THE 50'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW TO W WINDS ARE NOTED 
WITH A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF...WHILE STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 86W. EXPECT IN 
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM W CUBA TO 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE S OF THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-83W...INLAND OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM W HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE 
COAST OF PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE 
OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE 
TO THE FRONT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
FROM 31N71W TO THE N BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 
24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 
1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N50W. 
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N26W TO 28N31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 
NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING THE E 
ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO 
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA