000 AXNT20 KNHC 142349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N15W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO ITCZ AND CONTINUES ALONG EQ30W 3S44W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 8W-18W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN 20W-34W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 29W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM NEAR 26N80W TO 25N84W. THE FRONT BECOMES COLD AGAIN FROM 25N84W INTO THE SW GULF ALONG 21N94W 18N94W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 300 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA...AND UP TO 45 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS. OVER WATER...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 250 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE NW GULF AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N93W. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AXIS ALONG 96W. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NE GULF IS HELPING PRODUCE SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS FLORIDA. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE NW GULF...WHICH IS HELPING PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA AND SUPPORT STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN BEFORE SURFACE RIDGING SETS IN ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PANAMA. THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS HELPING PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 78W-82W. MOSTLY 15-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N38W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N66W TO 29N74W BECOMING STATIONARY TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND NORTH OF THE AXIS AND CONTINUE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. A SMALL PORTION OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT JUST EAST OF THE HIGH CENTER ALONG 31N30W TO 27N40W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 38N20W CONTINUING TO EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 23N34W 11N57W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG 12W SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 40N15W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON