000 AXNT20 KNHC 141742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W THEN ALONG 4N16W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N72W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 8W-17W...FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-31W AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OVER THE FAR NW ATLC SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT AT 14/1500 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC BECOMING STATIONARY CONTINUING INTO THE GULF ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE THEN S OF NAPLES ALONG 25N84W 23N92W 21N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF WATERS. DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA N OF THE FRONT AND SE OF A LINE FROM THE ALABAMA/ MISSISSIPPI BORDER ALONG 27N92W TO TAMPICO MEXICO INCLUDING MOST OF FLORIDA AND THE COAST OF ALABAMA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF COAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE S OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE E TONIGHT AND STALLING FROM FLORIDA BAY TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN FRI MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N GULF LATE FRI NIGHT MERGING WITH THE OLD FRONT. THE NEW FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH THE GULF PUSHING INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE W GULF SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ALTHOUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 64W-80W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WHILE THE REMAINDER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER FRONT MERGING WITH THE OLD FRONT AND PUSHING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA LATE SUN INCREASING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS AND THE FAR NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 14/1500 UTC NEAR 32N67W EXTENDING TO 28N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CROSSING FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 200/225 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N53W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W ALONG 22N41W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 16N51W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N30W TO 27N40W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF PORTUGAL WITH A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH ESTABLISHED W OF THE ABOVE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 30N39W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE OLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING FROM 32N64W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING THEN FROM 32N56W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA LATE SUN NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW