000
AXNT20 KNHC 141124
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF N LIBERIA NEAR 
7N11W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 4N27W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 15W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 29W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM STUART FLORIDA NEAR 
27N80W TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 24N90W TO S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. RADAR 
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E 0F 87W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE 
GULF N OF 28N E OF 90W. 10-25 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N 
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE S GULF HAS 10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW 
WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS 
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR 
ADVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE S OF HAITI FROM 
16N-18N BETWEEN 73W-77W...AND S OF CUBA TO FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 
83W-85W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE 
OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE 
TO THE COLD FRONT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N71W TO S FLORIDA 
NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N38W. 
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 27N39W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 32N10W TO 26N12W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC 
FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO THE N BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO DRIFT 
E WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA