000 AXNT20 KNHC 131743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N13W 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W TO 1N23W 1N30W EQ36W TO 2S41W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 80 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 11W AND 16W. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS HAPPENING WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND 35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS HAPPENING WITHIN 140 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 34W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE TO 29N84W 26N89W 24N93W 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AND RAINSHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE RADAR ACROSS THIS REGION. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ENHANCES THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT LIES EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEST OF THE FRONT NORTHERLIES IN THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT DISPLACE THE FRONT EASTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ENJOY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF AND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND OVER THE SE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE SPREADS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN THE S CARIBBEAN ADJACENT TO THE E COAST OF PANAMA AND N COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BASIN ARE N-NE OF THE LOW WHERE THE RANGE OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 25-30 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA AND SAN SALVADOR. HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DOTTING THESE AREAS. THE CURRENT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN 24 HOURS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BEING THE NORTHERN PART OF IT AMONG TWO BROAD HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N34W AND THEN SW TO 26N40W 22N45W 21N50W 19N57W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL NARROW TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 40N33W TO 15N51W. SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 25N AND WITHIN 230 NM EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. SAME TYPE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS SOUTH OF 25N. THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AREAS ARE PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST ATLC...AS WELL AS OVER THE EAST ATLC NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 34W. BESIDES THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO WILL BE POSITIONED WEST OF 70W IN THE WEST ATLC AND THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL REMAIN STALLED WHILE IT STEADILY WEAKEN. EXPECT RAINSHOWERS OVER THE W ATLC BUT MINIMUM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS