000 AXNT20 KNHC 131139 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 3N22W TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-34W...AND FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 31N86W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO MOBILE ALABAMA TO 27N90W TO 24N96W TO TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO S SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N81W. 15-20 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 33N70W TO S SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N51W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N34W TO 24N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 28N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-55W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N70W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA