000 AXNT20 KNHC 130514 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 3N22W TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-34W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 36W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 31N91W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO S GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 83W-87W. 15 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS S OF THE LOW CENTER. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO OVER THE WARM SECTOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA AND CENTRAL HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO SE GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N53W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO 24N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 27N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-55W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N76W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA