000
AXNT20 KNHC 121128
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
4N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
4N21W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
1S49W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS W OF 27W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE 
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. RADAR 
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
S OF THE FRONT HAS 10-15 KT SW SURFACE FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE 
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW 1006 MB LOW TO BE OVER S 
ALABAMA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH 
SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW EXTENDING E TO S 
GEORGIA. MOST OF THE GULF WILL HAVE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE 
FLOW E OF THE FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
EXTEND FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO S OF PUERTO RICO TO S OF 
HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA AND 
NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR 
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N 78 TO JACKSONVILLE 
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N59W. A COLD 
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N41W TO 21N50W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 39W-43W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT 
AND SHEAR LINE. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR
NEAR 37N22W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 
27N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT 
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA