000
AXNT20 KNHC 120520
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
4N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
4N21W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
1S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS W OF 25W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO SE LOUISIANA 
NEAR 29N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 28N95W AND ENDS NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W.  
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
S OF THE FRONT HAS 10-15 KT SW SURFACE FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE 
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW 1006 MB LOW TO BE OVER S 
ALABAMA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH 
SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW EXTENDING E TO S 
GEORGIA. MOST OF THE GULF WILL HAVE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE 
FLOW E OF THE FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 64W-69W. 
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N E OF 64W. 
MORE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND HISPANIOLA 
MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR 
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N64W. A 
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N42W TO 23N50W. A 
SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-45W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT 
AND SHEAR LINE. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 
37N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N40W. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT 
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA