000
AXNT20 KNHC 111751
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N11W TO 
5N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
5N19W 1N26W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO 1S43W. CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4S TO 1S BETWEEN 24W AND 
31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 31W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM 
SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ALONG 28N94W 26N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ENTERS THE GULF 
WATERS BY TUXPAN TO 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE ALONG 
THE COLD FRONT AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY 
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER LAND. 
RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF STRONGER SHOWERS N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 89W AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD 
TRACK CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF. DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 
THE FRONT THUS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. RETURN 
FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT SPREAD OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OF WEST 
OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT HAS BEEN REPORTED. 
WITHIN 24 HOURS...EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE 
GULF AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK.       

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS 
AFTERNOON. TRADEWINDS WIND SPEED RANGE IS 15-20 KT WITH A MAXIMA 
OF 25 KT ALONG COASTAL COLOMBIA. THERE ARE FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUD 
PATCHES FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS OVER PUERTO 
RICO ASSOCIATED TO A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE 
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS 
OVER LA HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER IN THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS 
ASSOCIATED TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. 
TRADEWINDS AND SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE 
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPREAD OVER THE WEST ATLC ASSOCIATED TO A 
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 33N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
WITH AXIS OFF THE EASTERN CONUS COVERS THIS REGION OF THE ATLC. 
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO 
THE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS MOISTURE 
COULD BE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N WEST OF 70W. OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
30N47W AND EXTENDS SW TO 22N55W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO 
19N61W THEN NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W TO NORTH OF LA 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. WIDESPREAD MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 
25N AND 190 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 90 NM WEST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED AND 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHEAR LINE. ALSO IN 
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 24N47W 18N49W 
TO 13N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF 
THE TROUGH. BOTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE TROUGH ARE BEING 
SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N49W AND EXTENDS SW TO 19N62W. OVER THE 
EAST ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES 
DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 21N EAST OF 43W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED 
OVER THE SPECIFIED REGION. OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST...A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 23N17W 18N17W TO 14N16W. CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL ALONG THE TROUGH. WITHIN 24 HOURS...A 
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL 
MOVE OVER THE W ATLC AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. 
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC STEADILY WEAKENS WHILE 
CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD TRACK.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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NR