000
AXNT20 KNHC 110509
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 
2N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
2N23W TO 0N30W TO 1S40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 
2W-3W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N 
BETWEEN 13W-17W...FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 26W-33W...AND FROM 1S-2N 
BETWEEN 31W-42W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW 
GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ALONG 
30N93W 26N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 
NM N OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF THE FRONT HAS 
15-20 KT SW SURFACE FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE COLD 
FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WITH 
SHOWERS.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF PUERTO RICO N OF 19N W OF 63W. MORE 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA MOVING SW...AND N OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 70W-74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. ZONAL FLOW 
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL 
SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MN HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA NEAR 
38N72W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N50W TO 
24N56W TO 22N60W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 
20N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 
47W-51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
AZORES NEAR 37N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE 
HIGH TO 24N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD 
FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND 
NE FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT 
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA