000 AXNT20 KNHC 102346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 02N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 22W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER A MAJORITY OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. PRIMARILY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF 92W IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA DOMINATES WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 10/2100 UTC IS ANALYZED FROM THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER NEAR 30N94W INTO THE FAR NW GULF WATERS TO CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 27N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE NW GULF EAST OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES FAIR AND CONDITIONS TRANQUIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...TRADES WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT GENERALLY E OF 80W THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS EXPECTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOOKING AHEAD...A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 22N64W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N E OF 78W THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 64W-74W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES NEAR 45N57W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING SOUTHWARD TO 26N BETWEEN 50W-66W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SW ALONG 23N60W TO 22N64W WHERE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT W OF 58W AND THE SHEAR LINE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE SHEAR LINE LINGERING AND PROVIDING FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES NEAR 38N28W. THE STRONG RIDGING IS GENERATING AN AREA OF NE TO E TRADES IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN