000 AXNT20 KNHC 101733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND EXITS THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 2N18W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N19W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W AND 30W TO 2S43W. CLUSTERS 0F STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S TO 4N BETWEEN 21W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RETURN FLOW SPREADS OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 46N74W. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEED IS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT IS AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND ENTERS THE GULF BY THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W TO 29N87W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 24N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CONUS AND DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. IN 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE NW GULF AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. RETURN FLOW OF 15 KT WILL DOMINATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS STRENGTHENING GIVING THE NW CARIBBEAN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THERE IS FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 65W-75W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER AN INCREASE OF WIND SPEED UP TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N55W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N58W TO 24N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 22N68W. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 30N57W ALONG 26N62W TO 24N68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA W OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE ABOVE COLD FRONT N OF 24N. FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE N AZORES ISLANDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 19N E OF 51W. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL DISPLACE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE IT STEADILY WEAKENS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR