000 AXNT20 KNHC 101143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W 1N41W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS 0F SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-28W AND S OF 3N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE E CONUS NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF E OF 93W AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER N VIRGINIA AND A 1032 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW N OF 26N W OF 87W TO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E GULF WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MON ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W AND CENTRAL GULF TO INCREASE WHILE SPREADING E INTO THE E GULF. THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING THEN STALL OVER NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUE. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TUE INTO WED. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS PUSHING THE FRONT SE ACROSS THE GULF NEAR APALACHICOLA TO 24N90W TO SW GULF BY EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO THE FAR SE GULF THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS STRENGTHENING GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 60W-71W AND FROM 16N TO OVER SW HAITI BETWEEN 71W-74W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N61W TO 25N65W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 23N72W. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 32N58W ALONG 27N66W TO 25N75W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA W OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER N VIRGINIA AND A 1032 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 21N55W TO 30N51W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE ABOVE COLD FRONT N OF 24N. WEAK BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 55W AND ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE N AZORES ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT INTO MON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILDS SE ACROSS THE AREA. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLC THROUGH MON EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN MON AFTERNOON AND TUE AS AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE TUE AND WED OVER THE W ATLC AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS NE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 32N65W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW