000 AXNT20 KNHC 100531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. CLUSTERS 0F SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-28W. CLUSTERS 0F SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE E CONUS NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF E OF 93W AND IS ANCHORED BY 1031 MB HIGH OVER W PENNSYLVANIA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE NW GULF GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 89W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND SUN ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS TO EXPAND E AND INCREASE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN EVENING THEN STALL OVER NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUE. A LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TUE INTO WED. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS DRAGGING THE FRONT SE ACROSS THE GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING THEN STALL OVER THE SE GULF BY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE HAS FINALLY RELAXED GIVING THE CARIBBEAN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 62W-68W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS N CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH MON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH WED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N65W TO 24N71W. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 32N62W ALONG 28N69W TO 28N75W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA W OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY 1031 MB HIGH OVER W PENNSYLVANIA. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 20N60W TO 30N52W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF A LINE FROM 22N58W TO BEYOND 32N53W TO THE ABOVE COLD FRONT. WEAK BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 55W AND ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR THE N AZORES ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM 32N55W ALONG 23N65W TO 21N75W SUN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE SUN INTO MON. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES E MON AND TUE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE AND WED AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW