000 AXNT20 KNHC 091146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N29W 1N42W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS 0F SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 16W-28W AND FROM 4N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS AT 09/0900 UTC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO 24N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT S OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY 1031 MB HIGH OVER MICHIGAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N97W TO 19N95W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING THE ABOVE FRONT THROUGH TUE LATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 60W-65W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE ATLC PASSAGES SUN INTO MON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E ACROSS THE W ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH TUE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH WED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A 972 MB STORM CENTER AT 09/0900 UTC ABOUT 100 NM E OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W ALONG 27N71W OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 25N77W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATES AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N68W TO 23N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WEAK BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SPREAD E THROUGH SUN AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR 26N65W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE SUN EVENING AS AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES E MON AND TUE ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE NW PORTION. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FURTHER ON WED AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS, FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW