000 AXNT20 KNHC 090531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 4N13W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N23W 3N37W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-35W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE NW ATLC AND S OVER THE NE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 27N SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS AT 09/0300 UTC ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 25N85W TO 23N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY 1031 MB HIGH OVER MICHIGAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N96W TO 19N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE SAT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING THE FRONT SE ACROSS THE GULF. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER ON TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 58W-64W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE ATLC PASSAGES SUN INTO MON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E ACROSS THE W ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH TUE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A 976 MB STORM CENTER AT 09/0300 UTC ABOUT 200 NM E OF NEW YORK CITY WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W ALONG 26N76W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND S FLORIDA S OF MIAMI DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 74W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. WEAK BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH ENE OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N62W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD MON AND TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW