000
AXNT20 KNHC 081727
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W 
TO 4N12W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N12W TO 2N20W TO 3N35W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-14W...FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 18W-27W...AND 
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 27W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
24N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. THE 
TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA AT 
29N91W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THIS FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A 1014 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 
93W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE 
GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF AND S 
TEXAS W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT IN 
24 HOURS FOR BOTH FRONTS AND SURFACE LOW TO BE OUT OF THE 
GULF...AND SURFACE RIDGING BE IN PLACE PRODUCING SE RETURN 
FLOW.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 
64W-74W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO 
ADVECT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND FOR THE 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W 
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE FRONT. A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NE OF THE 
AZORES NEAR 41N20W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N30W.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W  
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N55W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY 
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD 
FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA