000
AXNT20 KNHC 080544
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA 
LEONE AT 6N11W TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 5N15W AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 4N25W 3N34W 2N40W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL SE 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 1W AND 10W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 18W-32W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 
32W. 
   
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TOWARD THE SW ALONG 29N83W 
27N86W 26N89W TO 26N91W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 25N94W 
25N96W 24N97W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE 
MIDDLE ATLC STATES SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THE 
COLD FRONT FROM 26N-28N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT 
ARE BOUNDED WITHIN THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LIGHTER WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE SW GULF A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS ALONG 23N95W 21N95W 19N94W. HOWEVER NO STRONG WINDS OR 
ANY PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 
GULF REMAINS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE 
TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE 
CARIBBEAN. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A 
SE TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE BASIN AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD 
IN BEHIND IT.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY 
AIR SUBSIDENCE AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE 
BASIN AND WHICH CENTER LIES OVER COSTA RICA. WEST OF 70W CLEAR 
SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION WHILE EAST OF 70W AN AREA OF 
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
REMAINS FROM 12N-18N. THE CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS KEEPING TRADEWIND FLOW MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 
KT WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED TO THE GULF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND 
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE WEST ATLC...A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
29N66W SW TO 26N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 80 NM 
ALONG THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST IN THE ATLC...THE TAIL END OF A 
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 30N54W TO 28N57W. NO SHOWERS ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW ALONG 29N48W 
26N52W TO 22N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THIS 
AXIS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 40W-54W. BOTH THE WEST ATLC 
STATIONARY FRONT AND THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH ARE BEING SUPPORTED 
BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. THE EAST 
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1035 MB 
HIGH NEAR 41N20W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE EASTERN ATLC. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR