000
AXNT20 KNHC 061729
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
9N13W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 4N30W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 26W-33W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N83W TO 
27N86W PRODUCING BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NE GULF AND CENTRAL 
FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE...15 KT SE ON-SHORE SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE TEXAS COAST 
FROM CORPUS CHRISTIE TO HOUSTON. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 25N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO 
BE OVER SE LOUISIANA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO CORPUS 
CHRISTIE TEXAS...WITH CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...COSTA 
RICA...AND NICARAGUA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W MOVING W 
WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL 
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH MORE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N67W TO 24N73W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N45W TO 
23N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THIS TROUGH. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER OVER 
THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W 
ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
TROUGH DRIFTS W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA