000
AXNT20 KNHC 061105
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N16W 4N22W 
1N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 20W-32W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE NE GULF A SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 
29N83W AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG 28N84W TO 25N86W. RADAR DATA SHOW 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF 25N 
EAST OF 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW GULF 
NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 91W. RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY N OF 25N IN THE 
GULF IS BEING SUPPORTED BY WESTERLY FLOW THAT IS ADVECTING 
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF  BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. BESIDES THE NE GULF...ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF. 
NORTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 KT SURROUNDS THE WEST 
AND EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...RESPECTIVELY. WITHIN 24 
HOURS...THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND RETURN FLOW WILL BUILD OVER 
THE ENTIRE GULF. AN INCREASE OF WIND SPEED TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE 
N OF 26N OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA COVERS 
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN...PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND THE WEST ATLC. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY KEEP INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TRADE WINDS OF 
20-25 KT ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST WITH GENERALLY 15 KT FLOW 
ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE WEST ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N70W 
25N72W 23N73W TO 21N75W. PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIES TO THE NE OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-30N 
BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A REMNANT SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N44W 26N46W TO 21N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 39W-49W. OVER THE EAST 
ATLC...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-32N E OF 28W. THIS 
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 25N26W. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE 
TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLC WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN IT WILL BE 
OVERTAKEN BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND 
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE WESTWARD 
WHILE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR