000
AXNT20 KNHC 060551
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N18W 2N21W 
2N30W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 10W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE NE GULF A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 29N87W. EAST OF THE 
LOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N85W 27N85W 26N87W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE NORTH OF 
25N EAST OF 87W. ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW 
GULF NORTH OF 25N. RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY N OF 25N IN THE GULF IS 
BEING SUPPORTED BY WESTERLY FLOW THAT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM 
THE EAST PACIFIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ENJOYS FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF IS WEAK WHICH IS SUPPORTING 
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE LOW WILL 
DISSIPATE AND RETURN FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. AN 
INCREASE OF WIND SPEED TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE N OF 27N OVER THE NW 
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA 
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN...THE SOUTHERN GULF AS WELL AS THE WEST 
ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. 
TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST WITH 
GENERALLY 10-15 KT FLOW ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 
34N50W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT FRONT REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL 
ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 30N44W 26N46W TO 21N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND 
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE REST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A REMNANT 
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE S CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 
12N55W TO NEAR 7N55W. ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 7N-14N 
BETWEEN 54W-61W. OVER THE EAST ATLC...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-32N E OF 28W. THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY 
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N25W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR