000 AXNT20 KNHC 052354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 11W-15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE W ATLC BUT DOES NOT EXTEND INTO THE GULF WATERS. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC S OF 30N. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MAINLY SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE N GULF EXTENDS FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 28N89W TO 27N94W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WITHIN 75/90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA NEAR 30N88W AT 05/2100 UTC. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N90W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEWLY FORMED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON WED. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT N ON THU WITH A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INLAND ALONG THE TROUGH. THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE E THU NIGHT AND FRI DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU EVENING INTO FRI MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF ON FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 16N78W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE W ATLC S OF 30N W OF 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N56W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT FRONT REMAINS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO 24N50W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 12N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N56W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 53W-60W. A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N27W COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-30N E OF 40W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-28N E OF 19W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE E THROUGH THU. A WEAK FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE E ACROSS THE FAR NW ATLC WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N64W TO E CUBA BY LATE SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW