000
AXNT20 KNHC 051742
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W 
TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N17W TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF 
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N 
BETWEEN 18W-23W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N63W.  A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO SE LOUISIANA AT 
30N 90W. 5-10 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. 
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS HOWEVER OVER THE N GULF 
FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 86W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 26N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED 
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE NW GULF DUE TO ON-SHORE SURFACE FLOW. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 17N76W TO N 
COLOMBIA AT 9N76W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N 
BETWEEN 74W-79W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. MORE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W MOVING W 
WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH 
TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT MOVES W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N63W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N46W TO 
24N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 13N55W TO 
4N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 24N25W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE NE OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 15W-25W TO 
INCLUDE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO PRODUCE 
CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 60W-70W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA