000 AXNT20 KNHC 051150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU THAT IS NEAR 11N15W...TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N19W TO 3N24W AND 1N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 18W AND 25W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 5N10W 5N30W 7N37W 12N53W 12N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO NEAR 20N100W...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N70W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG AND HAZE ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS OF THE OTHER OIL DRILLING SITES. LOW CLOUDS...LOW VISIBILITIES...FOG...AND SOME RAIN COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...TO LOUISIANA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. RAIN IS FOUND ALSO IN SOME PARTS OF THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR 7N72W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...TO 11N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 13N95W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE 15N67W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N67W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VENEZUELA TO PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 63W AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF COASTAL HAITI NEAR 18N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST OF 18N73W 13N72W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W BEYOND 8N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AS IT PASSES THROUGH 60W CURVING TOWARD 50W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 27N56W AND 23N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N65W... ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL CUBA. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 32N51W 27N56W 23N65W 20N74W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 24N60W 20N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N48W 12N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N29W TO A 23N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N27W AND 6N27W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 14N55W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N48W AND BEYOND 32N43W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 25N45W. ANOTHER RIDGE IS ALONG 20N34W 8N34W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N53W 22N65W COLD FRONT AND THEN STATIONARY TO 21N75W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 24N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 67W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WIND OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT