000 AXNT20 KNHC 042353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 8N13W TO 2N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N23W 2N39W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 13W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER TEXAS AND THE FAR NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MAINLY SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE CONUS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 28N W OF 89W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N75W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF MAINLY FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 85W-94W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT AND TUE. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON WED. THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT ONSHORE THU AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN AGAIN BY LATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 74W FROM 15N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 71W-75W. NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 82W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ELSEWHERE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N56W TO 26N61W SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N56W ALONG 25N61W TO 23N67W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N60W TO 21N69W. THE AREA W OF THE COLD FRONT IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC FROM 10N-27N BETWEEN 17W-35W AND CENTERED NEAR 20N25W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-22N E OF 24W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA AND FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 20W-29W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N45W TO 9N48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE TUE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CLIP THE WATERS N OF 30N BEFORE SHIFTING NE OF THE AREA WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI AND REACH FROM 32N64W TO E CUBA BY LATE SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW