000
AXNT20 KNHC 041722
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
8N13W TO 2N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 2N19W TO 2N40W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 13W-35W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. 5-10 KT 
SE TO S SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. FAIR TO PARTLY 
CLOUDY LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 26N. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER S TEXAS. ALSO EXPECT 
CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND E 
TEXAS DUE TO ON-SHORE SURFACE FLOW. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT REACHES THE E TIP 
OF CUBA MOVING E. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER E CUBA E OF 77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN FROM 16N73W TO N COLOMBIA AT 7N74W MOVING W. 10-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 67W-74W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS... GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND 
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N65W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
THE FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND FOR THE SURFACE 
TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT MOVES W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N57W TO 27N60W 
TO THE E TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 16N45W TO 10N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 
NM OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE 
AZORES NEAR 41N24W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE 
HIGH TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 23N W OF 52W 
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N26W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 
18W-28W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE 
TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA