000 AXNT20 KNHC 030605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W...TO 3N24W AND 5N42W... INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 39W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF 22W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT STILL IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...TO NORTHERN MEXICO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 29N85W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 26N95W...TO 21N97W IN THE MEXICO GULF COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWARD. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FAIR SKIES...SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...ARE OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. LOW VISIBILITIES AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVAL AIR STATION TO PALACIOS TO PORT LAVACA TO THE PEARLAND REGIONAL GENERAL AIRPORT IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AREA IN THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. THE LOW VISIBILITIES AND FOG CONTINUE INTO LOUISIANA...TO THE ACADIANA REGIONAL GENERAL AIRPORT AND TO THE SOUTH LAFOURCHE GENERAL AIRPORT. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND CONTINUING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 86W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 80W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY IS TO THE EAST OF 75W...AND THE FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY TO THE WEST OF 75W. THIS FLOW HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 24N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N72W 15N78W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 14N72W 15N78W 14N83W. THE CLOUDINESS THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 68W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N44W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH PANAMA NEAR 8N81W BEYOND 7N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N72W 15N78W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 27N63W TO 24N70W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N7OW...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. A COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...PASSING THROUGH 32N59W 28N67W 28N74W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 28N74W TO 28N76W AND 30N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 26N60W... INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND POSSIBLY CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 19N TO 24N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 22N63W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N56W AND BEYOND 32N46W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N42W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 53W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N40W 23N39W 20N43W AND 22N49W. A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N41W 19N44W 19N51W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N37W TO 16N41W AND 12N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 27N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 26N27W 21N31W AND 13N37W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 43W WITH THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N44W. ALSO EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 54W. STATIONARY FRONT 31N57W TO 22N76W. N OF 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 68W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. THE 12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N76W TO 23N81W. N OF 29N W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT