000 AXNT20 KNHC 021152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W... CURVING TO 11N16W AND 7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W... TO 3N20W 3N30W 3N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 2N TO THE EAST OF 6W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE WEST OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 29N93W...OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWARD. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. FAIR SKIES ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. THE AREA OF ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON IN TEXAS WAS REPORTING VISIBILITIES AT OR LOWER THAN 3 MILES WITH FOG DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...FROM 02/0900 UTC TO 02/1042 UTC. FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE AREA OF BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA REPORTED VISIBILITIES AT OR LOWER THAN 2 MILES WITH FOG AROUND 02/0700 UTC. THE VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY BECAME BETTER WITH TIME...UP TO THE PRESENT TIME. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 25N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW AS IT CROSSES 60W AND BEYOND...ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N72W 15N78W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 14N72W 15N78W 14N83W. THE CLOUDINESS THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 66W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N IS MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N42W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W BEYOND 7N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N72W 15N78W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT... 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 81W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A FIRST COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N70W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND 20N80W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 20N80W TO 18N84W AND THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 27N66W 25N70W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 70W ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS TO 80W... AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 87W. A SECOND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COMPARATIVELY COLDER AIR... PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 30N74W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W... INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 18N TO 26N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N64W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 71W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N42W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N40W 23N39W 20N43W AND 22N49W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N45W 28N40W AND 24N36W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N36W TO 17N40W AND 11N52W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 25N25W 17N30W AND 10N40W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 14 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W...WITH THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N41W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 10 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 41W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 11 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 55W AND FROM 12N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 58W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 31N71W 29N81W COLD FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 73W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT