000 AXNT20 KNHC 020604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N14W...TO 3N17W 2N30W TO 2N44W...CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 1N50W IN THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE NEARLY ADJACENT TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 1N TO THE EAST OF 10W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N93W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR TEXAS TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N AND TO THE EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 78W/79W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 25N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW AS IT CROSSES 60W AND BEYOND. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 14N70W 14N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT... S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. A SECOND AREA HAS TO DO WITH...A STATIONARY FRONT 21N79W TO 17N86W...N OF 21N W OF 85W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FEET IN N SWELL...HIGHEST IN YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A FIRST COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 25N70W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 22N77W TO 16N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 26N70W... AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS. A SECOND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COMPARATIVELY COLDER AIR... PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 30N80W...TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ALONG 30N/31N TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...FROM LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 21N TO 26N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N62W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 71W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N41W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 52W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N39W 21N42W TO 22N47W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N38W AND 23N36W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N36W 20N37W AND 16N41W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 24N26W 15N32W AND 10N34W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 15 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...WITH THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N41W...N OF 28N BETWEEN 38W AND 42W FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT