000 AXNT20 KNHC 011737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 3N ALONG 5N9W 6N17W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N22W 3N33W 2N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING NOW DOMINATES AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH SOUTH OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND ANTI-CYCLONIC AROUND THE HIGH CENTER INCREASING IN SPEED OUTWARD AND REACHING 15-20 KT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SINKS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SECOND FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY...SO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH IT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY IS NOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO NORTH OF HONDURAS ALONG 20N84W 16N87W...AS OF 1500 UTC. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS AND FAR WESTERN ATLC. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE FRONT. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALSO EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SMALL AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO CAUSING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W AND EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA ALONG 26N73W 22N79W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE EAST EXTENDING FROM NEAR HISPANIOLA TO 38N47W. THE RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 41N33W...WHICH IS PROVIDING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA EAST OF THE FRONT TO 50W. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N41W SUPPORTS A CO-LOCATED 1009 MB SURFACE LOW WHICH IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF FRONTS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N40W 23N37W BECOMING COLD ALONG 18N43W 18N53W 20N58W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FARTHER OUT FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N37W 24N35W 18N38W 15N45W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO 18N54W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH FRONTS NORTH OF 20N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NW OF THE CENTER NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 38W-44W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC IS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTER NEAR 25N18W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON