000
AXNT20 KNHC 010005
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA COAST AFRICA NEAR 10N15W 
TO 6N18W IN THE EASTERN ATLC. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N18W TO 
1N30W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 
22W-30W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN SW GULF NEAR 28N92W. 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF 20 KT IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF EAST OF 
90W S OF 28N. LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT 
SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AND NW GULF W OF 90W N OF 23N. IN THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY 
WINDS OF 15-20 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ASSOCIATED TO THE 
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT COVER THE SOUTHERN AND SE PORTIONS OF 
THE GULF. RAIN SHOWERS AND HAZE HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE 
COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RADAR DATA SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED 
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REST OF THE GULF ENJOYS CLEAR 
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 20 KT WILL 
PERSIST.        

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N82W TO 
20N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
SKIES ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HAZE HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER 
WESTERN CUBA...THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
HONDURAS COAST. TRADE WINDS OF 5-10 KT DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN WEST OF JAMAICA AND N OF 15N. STRONGER EASTERLY TRADE 
WINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N WITH A 
MAXIMUM OF 25 KT ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. IN THE UPPER 
LEVEL...A BROAD RIDGE COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH 
OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BUILD 
ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS OVER 
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER 
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE WEST ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N72W 
THEN EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR 
23N81W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES LIES WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE 
FRONT AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT 
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.A AS WELL THE WEST ATLC. OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A COLD FRONT 
THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N35W...EXTENDS TO THE LOW NEAR 
26N36W THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N39W 20N45W 21N52W. A REINFORCING 
COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM 25N36W TO 21N38W 18N42W TO 17N49W. 
THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED NEAR 26N39W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND THE 
LOW IS FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 34W-42W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NW OF 
THE LOW PRESSURE N OF 28N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. AN OUTBREAK OF 
AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 13N-30N E OF 40W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR