000 AXNT20 KNHC 311203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W... JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH GUINEA-BISSAU...TO 10N17W AND 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 5N20W 1N26W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...REMAINING IN THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 32W AND 37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 31W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N TO THE EAST OF 14W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N80W OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH 28N82W...TO 24N87W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 24N91W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W... 27N81W IN FLORIDA...23N86W...TO 19N91W IN THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...TO 23N98W 19N96W... TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 27N61W 24N73W...ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N83W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE TWO ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...TO THE WEST OF 50W. FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED...WITH SOME AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE WITH FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED IN REYNOSA MEXICO IN THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE REPORTED ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE AREA OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT...FROM AT LEAST BROOKVILLE TO NAPLES. FAIR SKIES ARE TO THE SOUTH OF NAPLES FOR THE MOMENT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 9 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 30N81W 25N86W 18N93.5W COLD FRONT...TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 91W. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 16 FEET...HIGHEST NEAR 23N94W...TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2... AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 6N76W...THROUGH 10N83W IN COSTA RICA... TO 15N90W IN SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 13N70W 14N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N83W IN SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...THROUGH 10N85W IN WESTERN COSTA RICA...CURVING BEYOND 6N90W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 13N70W 14N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST...CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST...AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 22N85W 19N88W COLD FRONT... TO THE NORTH OF 21N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 27N61W 24N73W...ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N83W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE TWO ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...TO THE WEST OF 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 23N41W TO 16N43W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 30N34W 25N40W AND 21N46W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 21N46W TO 19N57W AND 19N68W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N40W AND 25N50W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N40W 28N36W BEYOND 32N34W. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W 19N38W 17N50W 17N65W TO 17N80W JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 20N16W WESTERN MAURITANIA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N26W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W INCLUDING IN AFRICA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO... TO 28N21W 24N28W 20N37W AND 18N54W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 6 HOUR FORECAST FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 15 TO 19 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...WITH A 31N35W 26N39W 23N49W STATIONARY FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...IN A BROAD AND GENERAL SENSE...TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W...WITH ONE 29N35W 21N45W 19N65W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY 31N39W 27N50W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT