000 AXNT20 KNHC 310605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 10N17W AND 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 5N20W 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N TO THE EAST OF 14W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W TO 24N90W...TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO 20N98W IN MEXICO. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 28N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N97W...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 19N96W. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N59W TO 27N68W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE TWO ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES... TO THE WEST OF 50W. FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED...WITH SOME AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. RAINSHOWERS ARE REPORTED FROM 27N TO 29N ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. FAIR SKIES ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N ALONG THE REST OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 30N84W 18N95W COLD FRONT...TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 94W. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 6N76W...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N82W...TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 13N70W 14N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N84W 8N86W...BEYOND 6N90W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 13N70W 14N76W 14N83W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST...CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 22N85W 19N88W COLD FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 21N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N59W TO 27N68W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE TWO ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES... TO THE WEST OF 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO 21N42W TO 15N46W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 30N34W 25N40W AND 21N46W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 21N46W TO 19N55W AND 19N65W JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N44W AND 27N50W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W 20N37W 17N55W...TO 17N72W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MAURITANIA AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 22N13W TO 22N21W AND 21N28W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W INCLUDING IN AFRICA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO... TO 28N24W 23N31W 18N40W AND 17N55W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12 HOUR FORECAST FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 18 TO 21 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...WITH A 31N37W 24N48W COLD FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...IN A BROAD AND GENERAL SENSE...TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W...WITH ONE 29N35W 21N45W 19N65W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY 31N39W 27N50W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 77W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT