000 AXNT20 KNHC 301744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH SIERRA LEONE INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 9N13W TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 5N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W TO 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 27W-40W...AND FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 39W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN CONUS AND NW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W AND CONTINUES TOWARDS EASTERN MEXICO ALONG 26N94W 21N97W. VERY SEVERE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT AXIS IN THE GULF. HEAVY SHOWERS DO EXTEND UP TO 45 NM EAST...AND 30 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS ALONG 99W. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA...MAINLY SW FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY DRY AIR. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF MOSTLY 20 KT ARE EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INCREASING IN SPEED TO 25-30 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NW WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE FRONT REACHING GALE FORCE FROM 24N-26N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SPREADS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BASIN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KT BLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REACHING 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-82W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N68W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 75W IS HELPING SUPPORT THE SURFACE HIGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 45W SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTS. A COLD FRONT IS JUST SKIMMING THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N44W 30N54W 32N64W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS UP TO 100 NM TO THE SOUTH. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N30W AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 21N51W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 20N58W AND THEN BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 20N68W 22N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 110 NM WEST OF THE AXIS NORTH OF 25N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS ELSEWHERE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF PORTUGAL. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER NW AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON