000 AXNT20 KNHC 290604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 2N20W 1N30W 2N42W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W...TO 1S50W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE EAST OF 3W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N3W 4N13W 3N27W 5N35W 6N42W 7N55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N70W. THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO 27N90W 22N94W...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W...FROM 28/2200 UTC UNTIL 29/0400 UTC. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING WITH TIME. A WEAKENING SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N87W 27N88W 25N89W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF 22N85W 26N89W 30N88W. VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 STATUTE MILES AND HAZE AND MIST ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF HAZE AND MIST COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE LOWER TEXAS RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 18 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES NICARAGUA...MOVING TOWARD JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...EXITING THE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF NICARAGUA TO THE WEST OF 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 73W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 73W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 73W CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION... MIATPTPAN...GIVES A REPORT OF 0.22 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN CURACAO FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N83W IN COSTA RICA TO 8N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 73W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING THAT IS FORECAST TO START IN ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO...30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N37W 22N66W COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 25N46W AND 19N46W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 25N48W 22N59W AND 22N66W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W 26N40W 20N51W 18N60W... TO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N27W. ONE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER BEYOND 32N24W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 24W NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N19W. IT IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DRIER AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 28N24W 22N37W 21N50W 20N64W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N38W 22N66W...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 270 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 52W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 61W. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST WITHIN 48 HOURS...20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 73W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT