000 AXNT20 KNHC 280004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH COMES OFF THE COASTLINE OF IVORY COAST NEAR 05N05W AND CONTINUES ALONG TO 04N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 01N44W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE WINDS VEER FROM WEAK ENE IN THE EASTERN GULF TO FRESH BREEZE SE IN THE WESTERN GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TODAY...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA STRAITS AS WELL AS ALONG THE EASTERN TEXAS COAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWERS IN THAT VICINITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF DURING THE NEXT DAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH IS ALSO FORCING A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS FORCING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS NORTH OF COLUMBIA DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF COLUMBIA. THESE NEAR GALE WINDS NEAR COLUMBIA WERE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1628Z. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING THIS EVENING...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITH ENHANCEMENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONGLY SUBSIDENT SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE VIRGINIA HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE ENHANCED BOOSTING THE TRADEWINDS SLIGHTLY. CONDITIONS NEAR COLUMBIA ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH GALE FORCE AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N57W WESTWARD TO 29N81W AT CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT ARE UP TO STRONG BREEZE NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH NW WINDS E OF 70W AND NE WINDS W OF 70W. THE FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 58W AS OBSERVED BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SECOND BOUNDARY...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 32N37W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 24N64W. NEITHER FRONTS CONTAIN ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. FARTHER EAST...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N23W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE HIGH...ARE DRIVING FRESH TO MODERATE BREEZE E-NE TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS...SUBSIDENT RIDGING FLOW PREVAILS. IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATED...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND REACH DOWN TO 25N OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISHING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAKEN THE TRADEWINDS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF 25N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA