000 AXNT20 KNHC 271114 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N8W CONTINUING TO 2N16W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N26W 2N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-41W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 13W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO AND THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE S GULF TO 23N91W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE FAR NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 90W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT AT 27/0900 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AS A STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN SAINT AUGUSTINE AND DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING OVER APALACHICOLA TO LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THIS FRONT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF S OF 25N. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE THERE IS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE SE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-24N E OF 86W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE NEAR 28N86W. THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COLLAPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE CONUS WILL THEN BUILD SW ACROSS THE GULF AND DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW GULF MON NIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TUE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE FAR W BAY OF CAMPECHE MIDDAY WED AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF THU LATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 19N W OF 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 21N71W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OFF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 50W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0900 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N62W ALONG 29N74W TO 29N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN SAINT AUGUSTINE AND DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N TO THE COAST OF CUBA W OF 76W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING ALONG 29N50W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 24N66W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE FRONT FROM 21N71W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 22N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 31N28W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS N FLORIDA WHILE THE REMAINING PORTION MOVES SE REACHING ALONG 27N THIS EVENING AND THEN TO 24N MON EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE NIGHT AND WED OVER THE NW WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES COAST WED NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW CUBA LATE THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW