000 AXNT20 KNHC 270538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 1N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 38W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 3N12W TO 1N43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO AND THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE S GULF TO 24N92W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE FAR NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE CONTINUING OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR BILOXI. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF S OF 25N. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE THERE IS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N E OF 84W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER THE NW GULF MON NIGHT AND SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TUE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE MIDDAY WED AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF THU LATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 19N W OF 84W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 21N70W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 12N66W OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/90 OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALL BUT THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 72W-85W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OFF COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 50W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0300 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA ALONG 30N75W TO ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF SAINT AUGUSTINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE FRONT. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING ALONG 27N57W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO 25N W OF 74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 21N70W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 22N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 31N24W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 27N LATE SUN AND DISSIPATE MON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE NIGHT AND WED OVER THE NW WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES COAST WED NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW CUBA LATE THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW