000
AXNT20 KNHC 260542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 7N12W CONTINUING TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
ALONG 2N30W 00N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 00W-11W 
INCLUDING...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 17W-21W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO STATES FROM 
E TEXAS TO S GEORGIA DRIFTING SE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE 
GULF NEAR 28N85W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW IS NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW 
PREVAILS WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N AND 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 28N. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DIP OVER N 
FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N63W TO 
15N63W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 
70W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N 
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA 
TO BELIZE TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER 
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER S GUATEMALA NEAR 15N90W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 32N66W. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W TO THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS ALONG 26N60W 23N70W 25N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N26W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-80W 
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS N OF 
HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO 
EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY IN 24 
HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA