000 AXNT20 KNHC 251152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 03N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 10W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC TO OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. WHILE THIS TROUGH IS PART OF BROADER TROUGHING LOCATED OFF THE EASTERN U.S SEABOARD...IT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THE FRONT REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE OVER FLORIDA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 102W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY...SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N87W AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY SE BUT REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE AND MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG WITH A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM 21N77W TO 19N84W THESE FEATURES ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21N78W TO 16N88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE E OF 80W. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH STRONGER WINDS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N73W TO 11N84W. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S SEABOARD THAT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC. THE TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 25N OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N61W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 28N73W THEN W-NW TO COASTAL FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE SE...A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 32N53W TO 23N70W AND CONTINUES TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W AS A SHEAR LINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND S OF 24N BETWEEN 70W-80W. THESE TWO FRONTS REMAIN AS THE ONLY AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN AS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N27W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 25N55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN