000
AXNT20 KNHC 241149
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 
06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
06N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE 
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF NEAR  
22N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR AND 
SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS NORTHERLY FLOW 
ALOFT PREVAILS. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM OVER THE FAR SW GULF WATERS 
E-NE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF WATERS INTO THE SW 
NORTH ATLC. WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LIFTING DYNAMICS IN 
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING 
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25N81W TO 20N96W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...STABLE CONDITIONS AT 
THE SURFACE PREVAIL AS A STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR 28N85W AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF 
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING E-NE OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST 
TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE TROUGHING OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING 
WEST OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE COAST OF 
HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS 
EXPERIENCING E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH 
STRONGER WINDS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING 
PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS 
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHEAST 
U.S. THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN 
NORTH ATLC. THE TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 27N OVER PORTIONS OF 
THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 
25N65W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND 
WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT REMAINS THE ONLY AREA 
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN AS THE REST OF THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE 
RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 32N25W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 25N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN