000 AXNT20 KNHC 232344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN LIBERIA INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 5N8W 4N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W 1N33W 1S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 7W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N86W...AS OF 2100 UTC. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING THE AREA THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ACROSS THE GULF...A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH STILL EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS. WHILE EMBEDDED WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR...THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 24N WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED. AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N96W TO 19N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS. SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY ANTI-CYCLONIC AROUND THE HIGH...EXCEPT IN THE SW GULF NEAR THE TROUGH...RANGING FROM 5-10 KT NEAR THE HIGH CENTER TO 15 KT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH A FEW AREAS OF 20 KT IN THE SE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS KEEPING THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF 83W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALSO DRAPED OVER FAR EASTERN CUBA WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH 15 KT TRADEWIND FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W AND CONTINUES TO THE SE BAHAMAS AT 22N72W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 33N24W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. IT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 18N54W TOWARDS THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...BUT IT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON